Ukraine appears to have a growing advantage across its more than 700 miles of front line, thanks in part to new drones that have turned once-safe roads far behind the front into a deadly gauntlet for Russian troops.

But despite the optimism the strikes have fueled, analysts caution that these weapons may not be enough to collapse Russia’s battlefield position and regain Ukrainian territory—a product in part of Ukraine’s own weakened state after years of war.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian medium-strike drones are pounding Russian logistics networks that supply troops. Ranging dozens of miles behind Russian lines, drones like the U.S.-developed Hornet can be seen on social media slamming into Russian trucks again and again. Those strikes force Russian logistics units to take more time-consuming precautions that reduce the availability of gas, food, and ammunition to front-line troops.

Even with the frequent strikes, some Ukrainian troops report no slackening of Russian assaults. However, a plan to sharply increase mid-range strike drone production to 100,000 units per year, as well as spread their use beyond just elite units, promises to cut deeper into Russia’s combat ability.

“In many ways, [the middle-strike drone] fills a gap that’s left by systems like HIMARS,” said Nick Reynolds, a research fellow for land warfare at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute. The U.S.-made HIMARS, or high-mobility artillery rocket system, helped stem Russian advances in 2022 by striking logistic nodes and command posts.

The quality of Russia’s army, meanwhile, is steadily degrading, with the country having an especially hard time recruiting the technology-proficient soldiers necessary for operating drones.

While Russia has been able to cope with its heavy battlefield losses by offering large financial incentives to volunteers, it is beginning to struggle to attract enough manpower, forcing it to increasingly turn to coercion, a politically dangerous method for staffing its military.

Still, it’s not clear yet that medium-strike drones are the wonder weapon Ukraine needs to begin taking back land. “The first goal [for mid-range strike drones] is to stop the deterioration of the situation, and only then can we think about something more ambitious,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian nongovernmental organization Come Back Alive.

Russia holds around 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, amounting to an area roughly the size of the U.S. state of Pennsylvania. Ukraine has repeatedly gone on the offensive to claw back territory, launching major offensives in 2022 and 2023, and even briefly occupied part of Russia in 2024. Ukraine continues to launch smaller-scale counterattacks, including one earlier this year. Besides being domestically important, such offensives also help prove to Western partners that Ukraine is worth supporting.

One key question is just how many troops Ukraine would be willing to commit to offensive operations. Although Ukraine has introduced reforms intended to increase the quality and quantities of soldiers serving, it also faces challenges with recruitment and retention, with as many as 200,000 soldiers listed as being absent without leave.

Its manpower problems also limit its ability to devise new techniques for coping with the drone-dominated battlefield, as soldiers are needed more on the front line than back in training camps, Reynolds said. Ukraine does have well-funded, innovative units, including Khartiia and the 3rd Assault Brigade. However, those units are currently important for holding the front line in their respective sectors, Bielieskov said.

That means that Ukraine likely has few troops to spare for assault operations, and those who are available may not be the best prepared.

And as powerful as middle-strike drones are, they don’t directly address the problem posed by dug-in and dispersed Russian drone operators, whose short-range attack drones can stall Ukrainian advances. These operators “are very, very well concealed—they can be identified, but it’s difficult and time-consuming,” Reynolds said.

Instead, medium-range strike drones are typically most effective when dealing with pockets of resistance, Reynolds said, as they can effectively shut down the roads leading in and out of areas where troops are mostly surrounded. Russia effectively pursued that strategy to take the Ukrainian cities of Pokrovsk and Bakhmut.

Nevertheless, Bielieskov said there is a chance that medium-strike drones could collapse Russian lines on their own, if the attacks are well-coordinated and carried out on a massive scale.

“It’s an open question whether simply through the middle-strike campaign you can recover major [Russian-occupied] territories,” Bielieskov said. “We are doing an unprecedented experiment in military history, attempting to understand whether just middle strike is enough to undermine the front line from behind.”

One possible scenario could include medium-strike drones attacking not only Russian resupply routes but also the prepositioned munitions and fuel that Russia draws from. Such a campaign would be challenging, with thousands of strikes required over a short period of time, close coordination between Ukrainian units, and many drone pilots.

“It’s about the number of crews we have, it’s about the intelligence, it’s about simultaneity,” Bielieskov said.

Further complicating the future of medium-range drones is the political future of Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s 35-year-old defense minister who is credited with the medium-range drone campaign, as well as other defense reforms aimed at creating a more technologically capable military. Fedorov has reportedly clashed with Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, and now is being considered as a replacement for the outgoing prime minister. As prime minister, Fedorov would have less direct influence over the defense ministry, and especially the drone campaign, which is still nascent.

Still, Ukraine may not even need to push on the battlefield to reap political rewards.

Ukrainian long-range drones are cutting deeper into Russia’s energy sector, a key source of revenue for the federal budget, with some strikes creating dramatic scenes of billowing smoke close to Moscow and St. Petersburg. Across Russia, consumers have been faced with shortages of gas that in some cases have led to rationing. On July 6, Ukrainian drones managed to fly nearly 1,500 miles to reach energy facilities in Omsk—roughly equivalent to the distance from New York City to Houston, Texas.

Other medium-strike drones are beginning to turn Crimea into a virtual island by targeting land, bridge, and sea routes into the Russian-controlled peninsula. Such strikes both cut off fuel supplies into the region, as well as impact tourism to the region, which has long been a vacation destination for Russians.

Long-range strikes also have a battlefield impact, noted Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank, by forcing Moscow to allocate scarce air-defense resources to protecting defense and energy infrastructure back in Russia rather than on the front line.

It’s unclear whether those strikes are putting sufficient political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek a cease-fire. Some analysts have argued that greater pressure could lead to Russia seeking more ways to escalate its war, even if options are limited.

But it has had one key effect: shoring up wavering U.S. support, which continues to be important for intelligence sharing, maintaining sanctions on Russia, and providing vital weaponry such as the Patriot air-defense missiles.

Seemingly impressed by Ukraine’s success, President Donald Trump last Wednesday said that the U.S. would let Ukraine produce Patriot missiles—a major coup for the country. “It’s an escalation,” Trump said, speaking of Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks, “but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end.”