{"id":36516,"date":"2026-07-15T05:10:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T09:10:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/south-china-sea-nine-dash-line-ruling-10-years-on\/"},"modified":"2026-07-15T05:10:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T09:10:11","slug":"south-china-sea-nine-dash-line-ruling-10-years-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/south-china-sea-nine-dash-line-ruling-10-years-on\/","title":{"rendered":"South China Sea Nine-Dash Line Ruling, 10 Years On"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Welcome to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief.<\/p>\n

The highlights this week: In the lead-up to the 10th anniversary of the nine-dash line ruling, China rattles sabers and nerves in the South China Sea<\/strong>; Indonesia rolls out the red carpet for Modi\u2019s visit<\/strong>; Myanmar achieves an ASEAN breakthrough<\/strong>; and the family abuse scandal rocking Thailand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

China Rattles Saber on South China Sea Anniversary<\/p>\n

Sunday saw the 10-year anniversary of the Permanent Court of Arbitration\u2019s ruling against China\u2019s nine-dash line. Fourteen countries reacted by reaffirming the ruling. China, predictably, reacted with saber-rattling.<\/p>\n

To recap the case: In 2012, prompted by a standoff at Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines sought international arbitration<\/a>. China refused to participate in or recognize the process. It went ahead anyway, and the court ruling eviscerated China\u2019s position, ruling its infamous nine-dash line invalid and faulting China on other points.<\/p>\n

China still refuses to recognize it and has tightened its grip over the area via salami-slicing gray-zone tactics. But the ruling stands.<\/p>\n

A question mark also hangs over whether the ruling did any good. Filipino fishermen<\/a> who used to visit Scarborough Shoal say they have been steadily driven away by Chinese harassment.<\/p>\n

To mark the 10-year anniversary, the Philippines and 13 other countries\u2014including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Australia\u2014issued a joint statement<\/a> reaffirming an \u201cunwavering commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n

China also banged its usual drum. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared in a statement<\/a> that China has historic sovereignty to the area, that the ruling is illegal, and the main source of instability is \u201cmilitarized and coercive behavior\u201d by the U.S. and \u201cother countries.\u201d<\/p>\n

More concretely, China<\/a> also rattled its sabers in the run-up to the anniversary. In June, the People\u2019s Liberation Army deployed bombers, fighter jets, early-warning aircraft, and frigates from its Southern Theater Command to patrol the area around Scarborough Shoal.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, a key trigger<\/a> may have been not just the anniversary but Japan and the Philippines beginning talks to demarcate their maritime boundaries with each other. China is extremely sensitive about Japan\u2019s increasingly active presence in Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n

(Notably, China issued a second statement<\/a> this week, targeted at Japan, invoking World War II and accusing it of \u201cneo-militarism\u201d after Japan\u2019s foreign minister made comments on the anniversary of the ruling.)<\/p>\n

The Philippines was also disturbed<\/a> by a recent claim from a Chinese academic that Batanes, a small group of islands that are the Philippines\u2019 northernmost province, belonged to Taiwan and therefore China. While not yet an official Chinese position, some fear China is testing the waters.<\/p>\n

However, in a speech<\/a> on Friday, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro\u2014recently sanctioned by China\u2014argued that while the Philippines was clearly weaker than China when it comes to deterrence, it had in recent years improved its position.<\/p>\n

In particular, he highlighted a push to update defense plans that now cover the country\u2019s entire economic zone. He added that the 2016 ruling had helped motivate the armed forces to take this step and build \u201ccommon cause\u201d with other countries.<\/p>\n

Teodoro was clear more needed to be done, though. In particular, he highlighted the need for supply chain resilience and called for defense spending to increase to 4 percent of GDP. He also wants to create a film about the Korean War\u2019s Battle of Yultong, in which 900 Filipinos held off thousands of Chinese troops. (The number is debated.)<\/p>\n

His main target, though, he said, is \u201ca visible economic dividend from the West Philippine Sea,\u201d which can be used to show its value to ordinary citizens.<\/p>\n

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remained silent<\/a> on the matter, as usual. Ever since the 2016 ruling, China-leaning nations\u2014namely Cambodia, Laos, and to a lesser extent Thailand\u2014have blocked statements.<\/p>\n

Modi wraps up.<\/strong> Last Wednesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped<\/a> up a three-day trip to Indonesia, where he met with President Prabowo Subianto.<\/p>\n

Indonesia had rolled out the red carpet for Modi and talked up his visit\u2019s significance. \u201cWe are two of the world\u2019s largest democracies,\u201d Prabowo said<\/a>. \u201cCooperation between our countries will certainly bring benefits to the region.\u201d<\/p>\n

Indonesia\u2019s defense ministry announced<\/a> it would purchase missile defense systems from BrahMos, an Indian-Russian joint venture missile manufacturer. Indian sources told Reuters the deal was \u200bworth around $630 million.<\/p>\n

Indonesia\u2019s presidential palace also announced that another Indonesian and Indian defense company had signed an agreement on air-to-air missiles. However, given Prabowo\u2019s tendency<\/a> to big announcements, take this with a grain of salt. The two countries also signed memorandums of understanding for strengthening supply chains in critical minerals and steel as well as in agriculture, and they agreed to accelerate preferential trade talks. Modi\u2019s trip follows Prabowo\u2019s visit<\/a> to New Delhi in January 2025, where he signed deals on areas ranging from healthcare to AI and maritime security.<\/p>\n

Modi wrapped up his visit<\/a> with a trip to Prambanan, an enormous Hindu temple complex in central Java that dates back to the ninth century. India may help with ongoing restoration efforts.<\/p>\n

An ASEAN breakthrough.<\/strong> Myanmar\u2019s foreign minister, U Tin Maung Swe, met with his ASEAN counterparts in Bangkok on Sunday. Since the Myanmar coup in 2022, ASEAN has refused to meet with top junta politicians, and this was officially<\/a> an \u201cinformal meeting.\u201d But it represents a notable breakthrough for the junta.<\/p>\n

Since its sham election in January, the junta has steadily<\/a> eased its diplomatic isolation. The plan for the meeting with Myanmar was announced in May at the ASEAN summit in Cebu. And junta leader Min Aung Hlaing recently visited China and India.<\/p>\n

Leading the push in ASEAN is Thailand. It is being reported<\/a> that Thailand may be the next country for Min Aung Hlaing to visit, potentially in August. Singapore<\/a> remains a skeptical voice. ASEAN\u2019s focus<\/a> for now appears to be access to Aung San Suu Kyi. In April the junta said she was moved from prison to house arrest, but her whereabouts remain unknown. Philippine Foreign Minister Maria Theresa Lazaro said Myanmar\u2019s representatives had assured her Aung San was in good health.<\/p>\n

Some analysts fear<\/a> this focus on Aung San by ASEAN is an error. During previous spells of imprisonment, military regimes in Myanmar have cannily used control over access to her as diplomatic leverage.<\/p>\n

Anwar\u2019s election warning.<\/strong> On Saturday, the Johor state election<\/a> delivered a resounding victory to Barisan Nasional (BN), which won 48 of 56 seats, up from 40 in 2022. Parties aligned more closely with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim struggled, and rival Malay nationalist group Perikatan Nasional was wiped out.<\/p>\n

BN\u2019s victory<\/a> has intensified speculation that it might break with the national government to usher in an early general election. Without it, Anwar would retain only a fragile majority in parliament. The state of Negeri Sembilan has an election on Aug. 1. If BN wins there with tacit cooperation from the Islamist PAS party, momentum for a pan-Malay coalition would build.<\/p>\n

BN also saw success in winning back ethnic Chinese voters. Eight of its successful candidates<\/a> in Johor came not from the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which dominates the group, but the Malaysian Chinese Association. This was more than the Democratic Action Party, which has for some time dominated among Chinese voters.<\/p>\n

It looks like UMNO is having a resurgence, with a shot of recreating its old model of winning power as the only group able to attract both Malay voters and a crucial chunk of minorities.<\/p>\n

Bangkok fire.<\/strong> A Sunday night fire<\/a> in a Bangkok bar, Rong Beer Na Lat Phrao, has left at least 30 people dead and some 70 injured, at time of writing.<\/p>\n

Police are investigating<\/a> possible negligence. Preliminary findings suggest the fire was caused by an electrical short circuit in an air conditioner. There are also indications that emergency exits were not clearly signposted and may have been obstructed.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul visited<\/a>, as did<\/a> Bangkok Gov. Chadchart Sittipunt, recently reelected in a landslide. The governor promised more fire safety inspections and potential regulatory<\/a> changes to stop such incidents recurring. This is not the first such incident<\/a>. In 2022, another bar fire in a town outside Bangkok killed 13. And in 2009, a fire in a Bangkok nightclub killed at least 65. Whether anything changes remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

Anutin visited<\/a> Malaysia from Thursday to Friday. His strong relationship with Anwar was on full display<\/a> as they dueted and serenaded each other with Frank Sinatra and Elvis Presley songs. The bonhomie-filled trip helped defuse an escalating trade dispute centered on seafood between the two countries.<\/p>\n

FP\u2019s Most Read This Week<\/p>\n

Should Southeast Asia welcome a second China shock? The latest Chinese export wave is mainly of high-end capital goods that could help power regional economies, argued Roland Rajah in South China Morning Post<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Can Vietnam become a semiconductor hub? By Robyn Klingler-Vidra in the Diplomat<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

The arrest of Indonesia\u2019s top corruption prosecutor by the police seems to have sparked a standoff with the military. In an article that says a lot between the lines, Andi Widjajanto uses a trip to Timor-Leste to reflect on civil-military relations, in the Jakarta Post<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

In focus: The family abuse scandal rocking Thailand<\/p>\n

In May, Siranudh \u201cPsi\u201d Scott released an emotional video<\/a> on social media alleging that as a teenager, he was repeatedly sexually assaulted by his older brother. The video quickly went viral. Psi is not only well known as an environmental activist. He is also a scion of one of Thailand\u2019s richest and highest-profile business dynasties, the Bhirombhakdi family, whose Boon Rawd Brewery produces the famous Singha beer.<\/p>\n

After a few days, Boon Rawd Brewery publicly<\/a> extended its sympathies to Scott. The brother, Sunit \u201cPi\u201d Scott, denied<\/a> the allegations but also left all his roles at the company. The sad tale has continued to grip the Thai public. Psi said his decision<\/a> to go public about his trauma was prompted by the fact that he was being sued by his mother, Jeeranuch Bhirombhakdi, under Thailand\u2019s \u201cungrateful child law.\u201d<\/p>\n

The law allows parents to revoke gifts to children deemed ungrateful, neglectful, or who have harmed the family reputation. His mother was trying to\u00a0reclaim millions of dollars\u2019 worth of land that had been gifted to Siranudh by his late grandfather. Last week, though, Jeeranuch dropped her case. In a statement she said: \u201cThis mother is ready to talk, as long as we speak with love and genuine goodwill towards one another.\u201d<\/p>\n

The statement said she respected the ongoing judicial process between her sons and hoped \u201cthe truth will come to light and fairness will be served to both of my children.\u201d Psi is adamant he will proceed with legal action<\/a> against Pi. The public will be following closely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Welcome to Foreign Policy\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief. The highlights this week: In the lead-up to the 10th anniversary of the nine-dash line ruling, China rattles sabers and nerves in the South China Sea; Indonesia rolls out the red carpet for Modi\u2019s visit; Myanmar achieves an ASEAN breakthrough; and the family abuse scandal rocking Thailand. China […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36517,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11611],"tags":[1999,12084,1702,26173,11954,5751,9892,8870,837,26172,12817,801],"class_list":["post-36516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spyballoon-global-news","tag-china","tag-homepage_regional_asia","tag-line","tag-ninedash","tag-paywall-free","tag-philippines","tag-ruling","tag-sea","tag-south","tag-south-china-sea","tag-southeast-asia","tag-years"],"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",0,0,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",0,0,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",0,0,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",150,150,false],"medium":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",300,300,false],"large":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",1024,1024,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",1536,1536,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",2048,2048,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",370,265,false],"kava-thumb-s":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",150,85,false],"kava-thumb-s-2":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",230,230,false],"kava-thumb-m":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",400,400,false],"kava-thumb-m-vertical":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",370,500,false],"kava-thumb-m-2":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",570,450,false],"kava-thumb-l":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",1170,650,false],"kava-thumb-xl":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",1920,1080,false],"kava-thumb-masonry":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",600,999,false],"kava-thumb-justify":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",640,640,false],"kava-thumb-justify-2":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/china-sea-GettyImages-2281656277.jpg",1280,640,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"#RiseCelestialStudios","author_link":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/author\/ralph-c\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"SPYBALLOON GLOBAL NEWS<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Welcome to Foreign Policy\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief. The highlights this week: In the lead-up to the 10th anniversary of the nine-dash line ruling, China rattles sabers and nerves in the South China Sea; Indonesia rolls out the red carpet for Modi\u2019s visit; Myanmar achieves an ASEAN breakthrough; and the family abuse scandal rocking Thailand. 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