{"id":32831,"date":"2026-07-03T10:37:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T14:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/el-nino-forecast-to-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:37:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T14:37:53","slug":"el-nino-forecast-to-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/el-nino-forecast-to-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u201cEl\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u00a0will also give an extra boost to global temperatures,\u201d said <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\">WMO<\/a> scientist\u00a0Alvaro Silva. \u201cWe know that during El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u00a0years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Key points<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o has developed in tropical Pacific<\/li>\n<li>Rapid development expected from July to September<\/li>\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o typically peaks between November and February<\/li>\n<li>Countries urged to act on WMO warning, to save lives and livelihoods<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>According to <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/media\/update\/global-seasonal-climate-update-july-august-september-2026?access-token=lfFW7dmujmvncSvQatiNEYN3U7n4YZxO_78vD7BXjO0\">WMO\u2019s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update<\/a>,\u00a0strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions are expected to develop rapidly from July to September, with \u201chigh confidence\u201d in this outlook.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It is based on multi-model forecasting from WMO partners which indicates a \u201c<strong>consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures<\/strong>\u201d across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to <strong>exceed 2\u00b0C<\/strong> in monitored regions.<\/p>\n<h2>Regional variations\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>On land, the outlook is equally worrying. \u201cIt\u2019s the first week of July, it\u2019s the start of what is traditionally the hottest month of the year,\u201d WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis told journalists in Geneva. \u201cAnd yet <strong>already in June we&#8217;ve seen record-breaking temperatures in many parts of Europe<\/strong>; just as an example, Germany last weekend saw a new national temperature record of 41.7\u00b0C.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The WMO update highlights a \u201c<strong>prolonged and dangerous heatwave\u201d in the central and eastern United States<\/strong> until the end of this week and into the Independence Day weekend, flagged by the US National Weather Service.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, there are likely to be\u00a0<strong>drier than average conditions in Central America and the Caribbean<\/strong>, along with North and South America.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Drier weather patterns are also forecast in parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia<\/strong> during the monsoon season, but <strong>wetter conditions are anticipated\u00a0<\/strong>during the rainy season from September to December<strong> in East Africa. It is also possible that East Africa may be wetter than normal and face flooding because of\u00a0<\/strong>another important climate driver, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which WMO describes as a possible development.<\/p>\n<p>The El Ni\u00f1o alert has prompted an \u201cunprecedented mobilization\u201d by WMO, its members worldwide and partners in regional climate centres, to support governments by providing timely forecasts to save lives and protect livelihoods, the agency said.<\/p>\n<h2>No time to lose<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cWe have a window to act for preparedness for early action. And this window is narrowing in some regions,\u201d WMO\u2019s Mr. Silva said. For areas where drought is anticipated, priorities include ensuring that there is enough water for agriculture, energy production and other key activities.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are opposite phases of the El Ni\u00f1o &#8211; Southern Oscillation (ENSO); they are one of the most powerful climate drivers.<\/p>\n<p>The naturally occurring phenomenon is characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following their onset.<\/p>\n<p>The effects of El Ni\u00f1o vary depending on the intensity, duration, the time of year and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes, including the Indian Ocean Dipole.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. \u201cEven when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur,\u201d WMO explains.<\/p>\n<p>The agency classifies El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe intensity of El Ni\u00f1o is important because it increases the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events in different parts of the world\u2026on top of long-term climate change due to human activities,\u201d WMO\u2019s Mr. Silva stressed.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cEl\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u00a0will also give an extra boost to global temperatures,\u201d said WMO scientist\u00a0Alvaro Silva. \u201cWe know that during El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u00a0years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels.\u201d Key points El Ni\u00f1o has developed in tropical Pacific Rapid development expected from July to September El Ni\u00f1o typically peaks between November and February Countries urged to act on WMO [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32832,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11611],"tags":[7861,9806,7997,17395,22940,3778,3763],"class_list":["post-32831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spyballoon-global-news","tag-extreme","tag-forecast","tag-increasing","tag-intensify","tag-likelihood","tag-nino","tag-weather"],"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",0,0,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",0,0,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",0,0,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",150,150,false],"medium":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",300,300,false],"large":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",1024,1024,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",1536,1536,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",2048,2048,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",370,265,false],"kava-thumb-s":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",150,85,false],"kava-thumb-s-2":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",230,230,false],"kava-thumb-m":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",400,400,false],"kava-thumb-m-vertical":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",370,500,false],"kava-thumb-m-2":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",570,450,false],"kava-thumb-l":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",1170,650,false],"kava-thumb-xl":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",1920,1080,false],"kava-thumb-masonry":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",600,999,false],"kava-thumb-justify":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",640,640,false],"kava-thumb-justify-2":["https:\/\/global.unitednations.entermediadb.net\/assets\/mediadb\/services\/module\/asset\/downloads\/preset\/Collections\/Embargoed\/01-03-2024-mada-dd-18.jpg\/image770x420cropped.jpg",1280,640,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"#RiseCelestialStudios","author_link":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/author\/ralph-c\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/category\/spyballoon-global-news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">SPYBALLOON GLOBAL NEWS<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"\u201cEl\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u00a0will also give an extra boost to global temperatures,\u201d said WMO scientist\u00a0Alvaro Silva. \u201cWe know that during El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u00a0years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels.\u201d Key points El Ni\u00f1o has developed in tropical Pacific Rapid development expected from July to September El Ni\u00f1o typically peaks between November and February Countries urged to act on WMO&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32831"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32831\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32833,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32831\/revisions\/32833"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}