In a turbulent year that has seen farmers worldwide get pummeled by trade wars, fertilizer shortages, and sky-high energy prices, another potential shock looms on the horizon.<\/p>\n
Meteorologists have declared that the world is already seeing the cyclical weather phenomenon known as El Ni\u00f1o, which has big implications for crop production everywhere. On the most basic level, El Ni\u00f1o events see unusually warm<\/a> waters in the Pacific Ocean, which pump heat into the atmosphere that then influences<\/a> global rainfall patterns and temperatures.<\/p>\n In a turbulent year that has seen farmers worldwide get pummeled by trade wars, fertilizer shortages, and sky-high energy prices, another potential shock looms on the horizon.<\/p>\n Meteorologists have declared that the world is already seeing the cyclical weather phenomenon known as El Ni\u00f1o, which has big implications for crop production everywhere. On the most basic level, El Ni\u00f1o events see unusually warm<\/a> waters in the Pacific Ocean, which pump heat into the atmosphere that then influences<\/a> global rainfall patterns and temperatures.<\/p>\n With forecasts that this could shape up to be a particularly strong<\/a> El Ni\u00f1o event, aid agencies are bracing for the worst in regions already seeing high levels of food insecurity. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) earlier this month issued a joint appeal<\/a> for more than $200 million to shield 8.8 million people in high-risk countries from the weather phenomenon\u2019s potential damages.<\/p>\n \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o always hits the most vulnerable farmers the hardest,\u201d said Ertharin Cousin, a former executive director of the WFP.<\/p>\n Global agriculture is no stranger to tumultuous weather, or even the impacts of El Ni\u00f1o, which last<\/a> occurred between 2023 and 2024. El Ni\u00f1o events take place about every two to seven years, according to Brian Barker, a principal faculty specialist at the University of Maryland who works for NASA Harvest, the agency\u2019s food security and agriculture program.<\/p>\n But the geopolitical and economic blows of the past few months have injected additional volatility into the sector.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a particularly challenging year because you already have farmers who are affected by higher fertilizer prices, higher energy prices, and that is potentially compounded now by El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d Cousin said.<\/p>\n The impacts of El Ni\u00f1o events are often felt unevenly by region, experts said, driving wetter conditions in some regions and intensifying drought risks in others. At the global level, crop production impacts tend to offset one another, particularly for corn and wheat, Barker said. And there remains considerable uncertainty about what this El Ni\u00f1o will look like.<\/p>\n \u201cEach El Ni\u00f1o event is different with regards to strength, structure, and timing, so that you never receive exactly the same impacts around the world,\u201d Barker added, noting that impacts depend on a region\u2019s initial agricultural conditions.<\/p>\n On the upside, world inventories<\/a> of rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans are high right now, offering some relief. \u201cBecause of the stocks we have at a global level, the market seems not as concerned,\u201d said Seth Meyer, a former chief economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).<\/p>\n It\u2019s at the regional level where pain will likely be felt. During the El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> of 2015-16, one of the strongest El Ni\u00f1os<\/a> on record, Paraguay<\/a> saw floods that pushed 145,000 people from their homes; Indian farmers saw droughts rage when they were expecting much-needed rainfall from monsoons; and South Africa faced one of its most intense droughts in decades.<\/p>\n As a result of that drought in South Africa, total corn output plunged by nearly 50 percent<\/a> compared to the five-year average, according to the USDA. Maize and rice output dropped in Asia in 2015, driving up key food prices, per the FAO<\/a>.<\/p>\n That El Ni\u00f1o event impacted more than 60 million people, according to the FAO<\/a>, and triggered $5 billion in humanitarian appeals.<\/p>\n This time around, the most at-risk regions are southern Africa, Central America, India, and Australia, according to a report<\/a> by the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM). Worryingly, in southern Africa, the expected peak of this El Ni\u00f1o event will overlap with the main maize season, the report said.<\/p>\n Aid agencies are worried. \u201cWe know that regions of the world that are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity and facing food crises are some of the areas with the highest levels of risk,\u201d said Richard Choularton, the director of the Climate and Resilience Service at the WFP.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o has a \u201cpretty significant impact on some major producing countries that can drive global food prices higher and where we ourselves buy food from for our operations,\u201d he added. \u201cYou combine that with the knock-on impacts of the Middle East crisis \u2026 that\u2019s a really concerning combination.\u201d<\/p>\n Not everyone will be hurt from the phenomenon. In the United States, where farmers\u2014one of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s core constituencies\u2014have for months suffered economically under his trade wars and Iran war, El Ni\u00f1o may have a positive impact on crop yields, according to the GEOGLAM report. Yields in parts of Central Asia, East Africa, and South America may also benefit, the report said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt doesn\u2019t generally have a negative effect on us [in the United States],\u201d said Meyer, the former USDA chief economist.<\/p>\n But for more vulnerable regions, the potential shocks from this El Ni\u00f1o are coming at a time when the WFP has warned that some 45 million people<\/a> are at risk of acute food insecurity and global humanitarian aid funding<\/a> has plunged.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re seeing increased effects of both climate and conflict on food security at a time when national governments have reduced their support for food assistance, and it\u2019s not just the U.S.\u2014other governments have reduced their support as well,\u201d said Cousin, the former WFP chief.<\/p>\n With these production risks looming, trade between countries will be \u201cthe most important tool\u201d for mitigating El Ni\u00f1o-induced production deficits, Barker said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe key thing is seeing this coming and understanding where we might see failures in the future, particularly southern Africa,\u201d he said, \u201cand how important trade is here in getting food to where it needs to be in advance of any crop failure.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In a turbulent year that has seen farmers worldwide get pummeled by trade wars, fertilizer shortages, and sky-high energy prices, another potential shock looms on the horizon. Meteorologists have declared that the world is already seeing the cyclical weather phenomenon known as El Ni\u00f1o, which has big implications for crop production everywhere. On the most […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11611],"tags":[7784,10829,19397,12544,11205,33,1250,13848,505,3778,959,21944,1682,21757],"class_list":["post-31728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spyballoon-global-news","tag-africa","tag-agriculture","tag-central-america","tag-editors-picks","tag-environment","tag-food","tag-global","tag-homepage_regional_middle_east_africa","tag-india","tag-nino","tag-security","tag-southern-africa","tag-threatens","tag-unpaid-in-apple-news"],"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",0,0,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",0,0,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",0,0,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",150,150,false],"medium":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",300,300,false],"large":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",1024,1024,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",1536,1536,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",2048,2048,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",370,265,false],"kava-thumb-s":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",150,85,false],"kava-thumb-s-2":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",230,230,false],"kava-thumb-m":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",400,400,false],"kava-thumb-m-vertical":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",370,500,false],"kava-thumb-m-2":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",570,450,false],"kava-thumb-l":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",1170,650,false],"kava-thumb-xl":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",1920,1080,false],"kava-thumb-masonry":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",600,999,false],"kava-thumb-justify":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",640,640,false],"kava-thumb-justify-2":["https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-453018712-1.jpg",1280,640,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"#RiseCelestialStudios","author_link":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/author\/ralph-c\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"SPYBALLOON GLOBAL NEWS<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"In a turbulent year that has seen farmers worldwide get pummeled by trade wars, fertilizer shortages, and sky-high energy prices, another potential shock looms on the horizon. Meteorologists have declared that the world is already seeing the cyclical weather phenomenon known as El Ni\u00f1o, which has big implications for crop production everywhere. On the most…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31728"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31730,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31728\/revisions\/31730"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}