{"id":28500,"date":"2025-09-07T03:33:43","date_gmt":"2025-09-07T07:33:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/thai-cambodia-border-conflict-shapes-domestic-politics\/"},"modified":"2025-09-07T03:33:43","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T07:33:43","slug":"thai-cambodia-border-conflict-shapes-domestic-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/design-providers.com\/rise\/thai-cambodia-border-conflict-shapes-domestic-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Thai-Cambodia Border Conflict Shapes Domestic Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Residents of the Thai province of Ubon Ratchathani were already on high alert after a Cambodian soldier was killed during a brief firefight<\/a> on the two countries\u2019 disputed border in May. But when heavier fighting broke out on July 24, all preparation went out the window as panic took hold. Traffic backed up, gas stations closed, and people struggled to connect to the internet due to network congestion.<\/p>\n

That day, Bee, a district health official, drove against the stream of traffic\u2014seemingly the only car speeding toward the explosions\u2014toward her home to pick up a prepacked bag of medical supplies. \u201cI have many roles. I\u2019m a mom, a doctor, and a member of the public. Like everyone else, I was really stressed, but I also have to take care of people,\u201d said Bee, who asked to be identified by a nickname because she was not authorized to speak to the press. \u201cIt was like the apocalypse.\u201d<\/p>\n

Residents of the Thai province of Ubon Ratchathani were already on high alert after a Cambodian soldier was killed during a brief firefight<\/a> on the two countries\u2019 disputed border in May. But when heavier fighting broke out on July 24, all preparation went out the window as panic took hold. Traffic backed up, gas stations closed, and people struggled to connect to the internet due to network congestion.<\/p>\n

That day, Bee, a district health official, drove against the stream of traffic\u2014seemingly the only car speeding toward the explosions\u2014toward her home to pick up a prepacked bag of medical supplies. \u201cI have many roles. I\u2019m a mom, a doctor, and a member of the public. Like everyone else, I was really stressed, but I also have to take care of people,\u201d said Bee, who asked to be identified by a nickname because she was not authorized to speak to the press. \u201cIt was like the apocalypse.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the Cambodian military fired rockets and artillery at Thai residential areas in late July, killing 14 civilians<\/a>, Cambodian protesters marched in the streets, wrapped in national flags and accusing Thailand of staging an invasion. The reality is that authorities from both countries have helped escalate the crisis, leveraging historical grievances to turn their citizens against one another.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not a war between countries. It\u2019s a war between individuals,\u201d said Waraluck, a day care center worker, referring to authorities in the two countries. (Waraluck asked to be identified by her first name due to the sensitivity of the issue.) Packing her bag at an evacuation center in Surin province, she added: \u201cThey have a war together, and we have nothing to do with it, but now we have to run.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/span>
\n Three ornate but decaying structures at a temple.<\/p>\n

An Angkorian temple in Thailand\u2019s Surin province, seen on Aug. 7, similar to the ones fought over on the border some 60 miles away. <\/p>\n

It remains unclear who fired first during the inciting incidents on the Thai-Cambodian border in both May and July, but tensions initially escalated in February, when Cambodian civilians escorted by soldiers<\/a> sang a nationalist anthem at a disputed ancient temple that is jointly administered by both militaries. In Cambodia, where even a minor labor protest<\/a> is treated as a national security threat, it\u2019s implausible that this happened without official approval.<\/p>\n

Though Cambodians have marched under banners proclaiming \u201cCambodia needs peace,\u201d most haven\u2019t had a real say in the country\u2019s policies during their lifetimes. Former Prime Minister Hun Sen\u2014a former Khmer Rouge battalion commander\u2014ruled the country with an iron fist from 1985 to 2023, when he passed power to his son Hun Manet. The latest border crisis has revealed the extent to which the longtime leader still calls the shots.<\/p>\n

After the first firefight in May, then-Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra called Hun Sen\u2014a close friend of her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Referring to Hun Sen as \u201cuncle,\u201d Paetongtarn offered to do whatever he wanted to defuse the situation. Instead, Hun Sen leaked the phone call\u2014humiliating the Thai leader, who was seen as overly deferential, and leading to her eventual removal<\/a> from office.<\/p>\n

On Friday, the Thai parliament selected a new prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, in another blow to the Shinawatra family. Thaksin abruptly left Thailand a day earlier, seemingly sending himself back into exile before he could face a ruling in a court case that could lead to jail time.<\/p>\n

Following reports of localized small-arms fire on the border on July 24, Cambodia fired on civilian homes<\/a>, transforming a contained border clash into an all-out conflict. Thailand then launched airstrikes and artillery along the border, some of which also killed Cambodian civilians<\/a>. Official sources put the Thai death toll at 15 soldiers and 14 civilians<\/a> after five days of fighting. Cambodian figures were harder to come by, but social media posts<\/a> suggested that at least 23 soldiers were killed; initial reports<\/a> claimed at least eight civilian deaths.<\/p>\n

Some Cambodians argue that it makes little sense to provoke a more powerful neighbor, but what is good for Hun Sen isn\u2019t always good for Cambodia. Analysts have theorized<\/a> that Hun Sen escalated the crisis to boost popular legitimacy for Hun Manet. If that was the plan, it has gone off the rails, as Hun Sen is now in the spotlight<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/span>
\n Two boys sit on blankets next to bowls of food in the back of a pickup. One holds a small fluffy dog.<\/p>\n

Young boys displaced by the conflict prepare to return home in Surin province on Aug. 9, following a cease-fire between Thailand and Cambodia. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/span>
\n People line up under leafy trees in front of a low building and a few cars.<\/p>\n

Displaced civilians line up for one last round of donations before returning home in Surin province Aug. 9. <\/p>\n

Others suggested<\/a> that the conflict is linked to the multibillion-dollar cyberscam industry run by Chinese criminal syndicates that have set up shop in Cambodia, including along the border with Thailand, some with links to Hun Sen\u2019s family<\/a> or other political elites<\/a>. Thailand indicated<\/a> in February that it was getting more serious about cross-border crackdowns, which it escalated<\/a> further after the clashes in May, while also pushing a casino legalization bill that could siphon dark money away from Cambodia. (The draft law was shelved<\/a> in July.)<\/p>\n

\u201cTo me, it seems as though Hun Sen became bitter with Thaksin about various issues,\u201d Paul Chambers, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, wrote in an email. \u201cIncluding Thaksin\u2019s joining a coalition with right-wing parties; Thaksin\u2019s support for legalizing casinos in Thailand; and Thaksin\u2019s support for cleaning out scam centers on the Thai-Cambodian border.\u201d<\/p>\n

Thailand is hardly blameless: It has clear, although limited, territorial ambitions. Despite an international court ruling<\/a> that a sliver of land along a cliff is Cambodian territory, Thailand has long argued that the edge of the cliff is the more obvious border. Though the ancient Angkorian temples in this disputed area provide a convenient nationalist rallying cry for both countries, the cliff itself would give Thailand the high ground in any future dispute.<\/p>\n

Since the two countries agreed to a cease-fire on July 28, Thailand has arguably been the more provocative side. The regional military commander reaffirmed<\/a> plans to seize one ancient temple, which would almost certainly reignite fighting. Thailand has also refused to return 18 Cambodians taken prisoner just as the cease-fire went into effect, at one point claiming<\/a> that they were being held on immigration violations.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/span>
\n A banner that reads #Truth from Thailand hangs on a storefront with powerlines above and cars passing in front.<\/p>\n

A nationalist banner references information wars between Thai and Cambodian netizens in Surin town on Aug. 7. <\/p>\n

Nationalist sentiment has taken hold in both countries, although the reaction in Thailand has been more complicated. In Surin, Thai flags draped many shops, some of which displayed slogans such as \u201c#TruthFromThailand,\u201d a reference to online flame wars about who started the clashes. But outside the border region, there was little sign of the conflict.<\/p>\n

Thai activists appeared more aware that citizens of both countries were being manipulated for political reasons\u2014or more willing to say so publicly compared with those in Cambodia. On July 27, the Thai chapter of the Milk Tea Alliance, a pan-Asian pro-democracy movement, released a statement<\/a> to this effect: \u201cWe are told different truths. Both Thais and Cambodians are trapped in an information war waged by their own states.\u201d<\/p>\n

Thais have reason to be wary of their country\u2019s military. In 2006, the generals overthrew Thaksin in a coup; in 2023, they blocked the progressive Move Forward Party from forming a government after it won the most parliamentary seats. Afterward, Thaksin\u2019s Pheu Thai Party formed an unlikely coalition with conservative and pro-military parties, the largest of which left the government hanging by a thread when it quit during the border crisis.<\/p>\n

But even Thailand\u2019s pro-democracy movement has been caught flatfooted by the recent border hostilities. Progressive leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said<\/a> his People\u2019s Party, the successor to Move Forward, supports the military\u2019s role in defending the country\u2019s sovereignty but still wants to limit its involvement in politics.<\/p>\n

However, the Thai military seems to be using the border crisis to enhance its political power. \u201cBecause of the July 2025 Thai-Cambodian crisis, the Thai military has much more independence from the civilian Thai government,\u201d Chambers wrote. \u201cIn post-crisis Thailand, there is no civilian control over the military, a situation which allows the Thai armed forces enormous authority over (and ability to adventure across) civilian affairs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Thai progressives are also trying to take advantage<\/a> of the disarray, telling both Pheu Thai and the conservatives that they will support their efforts to form a new government\u2014if they pledge to hold a new election in the next four months, which the progressives seem confident of winning.\u00a0Anutin, a conservative politician, agreed to this timeline before being picked to lead the minority government.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t <\/p>\n

<\/span>
\n Yellow tape marks off a muddy crater with a fallen tree and damaged metal roof.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tA bomb crater next to a noodle shop in Surin province on Aug. 8.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t
<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t <\/p>\n

<\/span>
\n A man is seen from behind looking toward the rubble and open wall of a damaged house.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tA man looks at his home, destroyed by the Cambodian bombardment, in Ubon Ratchathani province on Aug. 5.
\n\t\t\t\t
<\/p>\n

Last month, thousands of Thais returned home following the unconditional cease-fire with Cambodia. Caravans of vehicles ferried families down the main highway in Surin back to the border zone, while local authorities handed out a last round of donated supplies to civilians who had been sleeping in pagodas and schools for weeks. One man waved over a truck loaded with dirt to fill in an artillery crater next to his noodle shop.<\/p>\n

Cambodia\u2019s attacks on civilian infrastructure have ruptured trust in the area. Suwannee Prommana spoke above the rumble of an excavator clearing the vacant lot where her wooden house once stood. Her parents had scraped together money to build the house after years of toiling on farms, only for it to burn down from Cambodian rocket fire just after they evacuated on July 25.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/span>
\n A person in a plaid shirt stands in front of a dirt covered lot with an excavator and palm trees.<\/p>\n

Suwannee Prommana stands beside a vacant lot, where her family\u2019s wooden house was burned down by Cambodian rocket fire, in Surin province on Aug. 8. <\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t really trust the situation will be final. I especially don\u2019t trust the Cambodian government\u2014they could start firing again at any time,\u201d Suwannee said.<\/p>\n

Bee, the health official, acknowledged that similar scenes were playing out on the other side of the border. \u201cWe know people in Cambodia are really struggling, too. We feel really bad for their civilians,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

What comes next is hard to predict. The last time clashes broke out on the Thai-Cambodian border in 2008, fighting continued on and off for three years. The recent cease-fire came about in part because U.S. President Donald Trump used tariff threats as leverage<\/a>; high tensions mean that a return to conflict is possible. But both governments may prefer to consolidate their domestic gains while continuing to use the other side as a bogeyman. \n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Residents of the Thai province of Ubon Ratchathani were already on high alert after a Cambodian soldier was killed during a brief firefight on the two countries\u2019 disputed border in May. But when heavier fighting broke out on July 24, all preparation went out the window as panic took hold. 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