Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: In the lead-up to the 10th anniversary of the nine-dash line ruling, China rattles sabers and nerves in the South China Sea; Indonesia rolls out the red carpet for Modi’s visit; Myanmar achieves an ASEAN breakthrough; and the family abuse scandal rocking Thailand.
China Rattles Saber on South China Sea Anniversary
Sunday saw the 10-year anniversary of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling against China’s nine-dash line. Fourteen countries reacted by reaffirming the ruling. China, predictably, reacted with saber-rattling.
To recap the case: In 2012, prompted by a standoff at Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines sought international arbitration. China refused to participate in or recognize the process. It went ahead anyway, and the court ruling eviscerated China’s position, ruling its infamous nine-dash line invalid and faulting China on other points.
China still refuses to recognize it and has tightened its grip over the area via salami-slicing gray-zone tactics. But the ruling stands.
A question mark also hangs over whether the ruling did any good. Filipino fishermen who used to visit Scarborough Shoal say they have been steadily driven away by Chinese harassment.
To mark the 10-year anniversary, the Philippines and 13 other countries—including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Australia—issued a joint statement reaffirming an “unwavering commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
China also banged its usual drum. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared in a statement that China has historic sovereignty to the area, that the ruling is illegal, and the main source of instability is “militarized and coercive behavior” by the U.S. and “other countries.”
More concretely, China also rattled its sabers in the run-up to the anniversary. In June, the People’s Liberation Army deployed bombers, fighter jets, early-warning aircraft, and frigates from its Southern Theater Command to patrol the area around Scarborough Shoal.
Interestingly, a key trigger may have been not just the anniversary but Japan and the Philippines beginning talks to demarcate their maritime boundaries with each other. China is extremely sensitive about Japan’s increasingly active presence in Southeast Asia.
(Notably, China issued a second statement this week, targeted at Japan, invoking World War II and accusing it of “neo-militarism” after Japan’s foreign minister made comments on the anniversary of the ruling.)
The Philippines was also disturbed by a recent claim from a Chinese academic that Batanes, a small group of islands that are the Philippines’ northernmost province, belonged to Taiwan and therefore China. While not yet an official Chinese position, some fear China is testing the waters.
However, in a speech on Friday, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro—recently sanctioned by China—argued that while the Philippines was clearly weaker than China when it comes to deterrence, it had in recent years improved its position.
In particular, he highlighted a push to update defense plans that now cover the country’s entire economic zone. He added that the 2016 ruling had helped motivate the armed forces to take this step and build “common cause” with other countries.
Teodoro was clear more needed to be done, though. In particular, he highlighted the need for supply chain resilience and called for defense spending to increase to 4 percent of GDP. He also wants to create a film about the Korean War’s Battle of Yultong, in which 900 Filipinos held off thousands of Chinese troops. (The number is debated.)
His main target, though, he said, is “a visible economic dividend from the West Philippine Sea,” which can be used to show its value to ordinary citizens.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remained silent on the matter, as usual. Ever since the 2016 ruling, China-leaning nations—namely Cambodia, Laos, and to a lesser extent Thailand—have blocked statements.
Modi wraps up. Last Wednesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped up a three-day trip to Indonesia, where he met with President Prabowo Subianto.
Indonesia had rolled out the red carpet for Modi and talked up his visit’s significance. “We are two of the world’s largest democracies,” Prabowo said. “Cooperation between our countries will certainly bring benefits to the region.”
Indonesia’s defense ministry announced it would purchase missile defense systems from BrahMos, an Indian-Russian joint venture missile manufacturer. Indian sources told Reuters the deal was worth around $630 million.
Indonesia’s presidential palace also announced that another Indonesian and Indian defense company had signed an agreement on air-to-air missiles. However, given Prabowo’s tendency to big announcements, take this with a grain of salt. The two countries also signed memorandums of understanding for strengthening supply chains in critical minerals and steel as well as in agriculture, and they agreed to accelerate preferential trade talks. Modi’s trip follows Prabowo’s visit to New Delhi in January 2025, where he signed deals on areas ranging from healthcare to AI and maritime security.
Modi wrapped up his visit with a trip to Prambanan, an enormous Hindu temple complex in central Java that dates back to the ninth century. India may help with ongoing restoration efforts.
An ASEAN breakthrough. Myanmar’s foreign minister, U Tin Maung Swe, met with his ASEAN counterparts in Bangkok on Sunday. Since the Myanmar coup in 2022, ASEAN has refused to meet with top junta politicians, and this was officially an “informal meeting.” But it represents a notable breakthrough for the junta.
Since its sham election in January, the junta has steadily eased its diplomatic isolation. The plan for the meeting with Myanmar was announced in May at the ASEAN summit in Cebu. And junta leader Min Aung Hlaing recently visited China and India.
Leading the push in ASEAN is Thailand. It is being reported that Thailand may be the next country for Min Aung Hlaing to visit, potentially in August. Singapore remains a skeptical voice. ASEAN’s focus for now appears to be access to Aung San Suu Kyi. In April the junta said she was moved from prison to house arrest, but her whereabouts remain unknown. Philippine Foreign Minister Maria Theresa Lazaro said Myanmar’s representatives had assured her Aung San was in good health.
Some analysts fear this focus on Aung San by ASEAN is an error. During previous spells of imprisonment, military regimes in Myanmar have cannily used control over access to her as diplomatic leverage.
Anwar’s election warning. On Saturday, the Johor state election delivered a resounding victory to Barisan Nasional (BN), which won 48 of 56 seats, up from 40 in 2022. Parties aligned more closely with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim struggled, and rival Malay nationalist group Perikatan Nasional was wiped out.
BN’s victory has intensified speculation that it might break with the national government to usher in an early general election. Without it, Anwar would retain only a fragile majority in parliament. The state of Negeri Sembilan has an election on Aug. 1. If BN wins there with tacit cooperation from the Islamist PAS party, momentum for a pan-Malay coalition would build.
BN also saw success in winning back ethnic Chinese voters. Eight of its successful candidates in Johor came not from the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which dominates the group, but the Malaysian Chinese Association. This was more than the Democratic Action Party, which has for some time dominated among Chinese voters.
It looks like UMNO is having a resurgence, with a shot of recreating its old model of winning power as the only group able to attract both Malay voters and a crucial chunk of minorities.
Bangkok fire. A Sunday night fire in a Bangkok bar, Rong Beer Na Lat Phrao, has left at least 30 people dead and some 70 injured, at time of writing.
Police are investigating possible negligence. Preliminary findings suggest the fire was caused by an electrical short circuit in an air conditioner. There are also indications that emergency exits were not clearly signposted and may have been obstructed.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul visited, as did Bangkok Gov. Chadchart Sittipunt, recently reelected in a landslide. The governor promised more fire safety inspections and potential regulatory changes to stop such incidents recurring. This is not the first such incident. In 2022, another bar fire in a town outside Bangkok killed 13. And in 2009, a fire in a Bangkok nightclub killed at least 65. Whether anything changes remains to be seen.
Anutin visited Malaysia from Thursday to Friday. His strong relationship with Anwar was on full display as they dueted and serenaded each other with Frank Sinatra and Elvis Presley songs. The bonhomie-filled trip helped defuse an escalating trade dispute centered on seafood between the two countries.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Should Southeast Asia welcome a second China shock? The latest Chinese export wave is mainly of high-end capital goods that could help power regional economies, argued Roland Rajah in South China Morning Post.
Can Vietnam become a semiconductor hub? By Robyn Klingler-Vidra in the Diplomat.
The arrest of Indonesia’s top corruption prosecutor by the police seems to have sparked a standoff with the military. In an article that says a lot between the lines, Andi Widjajanto uses a trip to Timor-Leste to reflect on civil-military relations, in the Jakarta Post.
In focus: The family abuse scandal rocking Thailand
In May, Siranudh “Psi” Scott released an emotional video on social media alleging that as a teenager, he was repeatedly sexually assaulted by his older brother. The video quickly went viral. Psi is not only well known as an environmental activist. He is also a scion of one of Thailand’s richest and highest-profile business dynasties, the Bhirombhakdi family, whose Boon Rawd Brewery produces the famous Singha beer.
After a few days, Boon Rawd Brewery publicly extended its sympathies to Scott. The brother, Sunit “Pi” Scott, denied the allegations but also left all his roles at the company. The sad tale has continued to grip the Thai public. Psi said his decision to go public about his trauma was prompted by the fact that he was being sued by his mother, Jeeranuch Bhirombhakdi, under Thailand’s “ungrateful child law.”
The law allows parents to revoke gifts to children deemed ungrateful, neglectful, or who have harmed the family reputation. His mother was trying to reclaim millions of dollars’ worth of land that had been gifted to Siranudh by his late grandfather. Last week, though, Jeeranuch dropped her case. In a statement she said: “This mother is ready to talk, as long as we speak with love and genuine goodwill towards one another.”
The statement said she respected the ongoing judicial process between her sons and hoped “the truth will come to light and fairness will be served to both of my children.” Psi is adamant he will proceed with legal action against Pi. The public will be following closely.
